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U.S. warns Taiwan, China
Tuesday, December 9, 2003 Posted: 0751 GMT ( 3:51 PM HKT)

WASHINGTON -- The United States has warned both Taiwan and China not to make provocative moves towards each other as tensions mount across the Taiwan Strait.

On the eve of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabaos meeting with President George W. Bush in Washington, U.S. officials slammed Taiwans moves towards independence from China.

We dont want to see Taiwan moving toward independence. We dont want to see any unilateral moves in that direction, a senior U.S. official told reporters on Monday.

At the same time, Washington has made it clear to Beijing its criticism of Taiwan should not be seen as a green light to use launch military action against the island.

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/12/08/china.us/index.html


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Blunt Bush message for Taiwan
From John King, CNN Washington Bureau
Wednesday, December 10, 2003 Posted: 0135 GMT ( 9:35 AM HKT)

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/12/09/bush.china.taiwan/index.html

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- U.S. President George W. Bush has bluntly served notice that he opposes plans for a referendum in Taiwan which his administration views as a means of stoking pro-independence sentiment.

Bush came to office three years ago characterizing China as a strategic competitor but told Premier Wen Jiaboa -- who met Bush at the White House Tuesday -- the two nations were now proving they can be partners in diplomacy.

Speaking with Wen at his side in the Oval Office, Bush reaffirmed the so-called One China policy of the United States and elaborated in a way that left no room for diplomatic nuance.

We oppose any unilateral decision to change, by either China or Taiwan, to change the status quo, he said.

And the comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo -- which we oppose.

Wen nodded as Bushs remarks were translated, and he said Beijing appreciated the presidents statement.

CNN Senior Asia Correspondent Mike Chinoy, speaking from Taiwan Wednesday, said the islands Foreign Minister Eugene Chien said Taipei understood the U.S. concerns about the referendum.

Taiwan wanted to assure Washington the vote would not deal with the touchy issue of unification with China, Chien said on state radio Wednesday.

Taiwan was giving no indication that the referendum would be delayed or cancelled, however, Chinoy said.

The White House insist there is no policy change on Taiwan, but privately senior officials do concede a shift in rhetorical emphasis.

These officials insist the shift -- and the pressure on Taiwan -- is the result of statements by Taiwans leaders that the White House views as trying to foment pro-independence sentiment in Taiwan.

When Bush took office he raised eyebrows when saying he would do whatever it takes to defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China. In those statements, the president went on to say he opposed any unilateral steps by Taiwan to push for independence.

But the tough rhetoric promising to defend Taiwan was trumpeted by conservatives as proof Bush was going to take a tougher line in relations with Beijing.

Now, Bushs statements are the source of disappointment in Taiwan and among some conservatives in Washington who say the United States should support democratic aspirations in Taiwan.

At issue now is a planned referendum in which Taiwans government plans to ask citizens to vote on whether they want China to end the missile buildup across the Taiwan Straits and promise not to use military force against Taiwan.

Taiwans president is up for re-election next year and the White House views the referendum as a thinly veiled political effort to fuel the independence movement.

Determined to quiet what it views as a potentially troubling political storm, Bush dispatched a National Security Council official to Taiwan last week to make clear Washingtons opposition to the referendum -- in the process abandoning what this and prior U.S. administrations have called strategic ambiguity -- deliberately vague answers about policy toward Taiwan.

What youre seeing here is the dropping of the ambiguity for both sides because we cannot sort of imply to the Taiwan side that were sort of agnostic towards moves toward Taiwan independence, a senior U.S. official said in explaining the new effort.

But at the same time weve got to make it clear to the Chinese side that this is not a green light for you to contemplate the use of force or coercion against Taiwan.

Wen said Chinas position was that it would push for peaceful reunification so long as there was a glimmer of hope.


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December 15, 2003 / Vol. 162 No. 23
Time Asia
http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/article/0,13673,501031215-557122,00.html?cnn=yes

Taking It to the Brink
Ahead of next Marchs presidential election, President Chen Shui-bian is fanning flames across the Taiwan Strait. Is he going too far?
BY ANDREW PERRIN // Taipei

Politically Incorrect: Is Chen playing the China card merely to win re-election?

At 22, John Wong is eager to begin his working life. First, however, the newly minted university graduate must spend another 18 months in a military uniform. Like all males in Taiwan over the age of 18, hes required by law to do national service. After three months of boot camp, theres a good chance hell be sent to one of Taiwans heavily fortified outlying islands, located just kilometers off the coast of mainland China. He doesnt relish the prospect. You just do drills and sit in bunkers, day after day, he sighs. Ill be miserable and bored.

Or perhaps not. Taiwans tensions with China are once again reaching boiling point, raising the distant but real possibility that Wongs stint in the army might be anything but dull. Last week, a Peoples Liberation Army general, Peng Guangqian, warned that China is willing to wage war with Taiwan to prevent it from declaring independence𨫎whatever the cost. Writing in a Beijing journal controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, Peng said China would brave a boycott of the Olympic Games, a drop in foreign investment, an economic downturn, even regional instability in order to uphold national unity and territorial integrity. Like all Taiwanese, Wong has heard similar strident threats from China before. This time, however, he blames his own President, Chen Shui-bian, for deliberately baiting Beijing by stirring the pot of independence at home in a crude attempt to boost his re-election chances next March. I suspect all he cares about is staying in power, says Wong, who until recently counted himself among Chens supporters.

Chen, 52, is taking the biggest gamble of his political career and, in the process, whipping up an international storm. At issue is his surprise announcement on Nov. 29 that he intended to use powers afforded him under a new referendum law to hold a popular vote to protect our countrys sovereignty. Many interpreted that to mean Chen was flirting with the idea of a referendum on independence㻡in action that China has consistently threatened would lead to war.



In addition to enraging Beijing, Chen has also created an ill-timed headache for Taiwans biggest ally: the U.S., which is obligated under its Taiwan Relations Act to come to the islands defense in case of an attack. But Washington is preoccupied with Iraq and Afghanistan; it also needs Beijings cooperation on everything from prosecuting the war on terror to containing North Korea to cutting its trade surplus with the U.S.

To pressure Chen to step back, Washington last week dispatched its top National Security Council official for Asia, James Moriarty, to Taipei to ask Chen to cool it over the sovereignty issue and, according to a senior official in Chens administration, urge us not to miss the sense of urgency in Beijings reaction. The U.S. conveyed a message to us that had come directly from China, says the official. The warning worked鍟to a degree. Chen reiterated a commitment made at his inauguration in 2000 to not change Taiwans status and vowed that any referendum would not touch on independence or reunification. Instead, he told the New York Times, hed organize a plebiscite that calls on China to remove the nearly 500 missiles aimed at Taiwan and demand that Beijing renounce the use of force against the island.

Chen might never have won the presidency in 2000 if China had not branded him a dangerous separatist whose election would bring war to the Taiwan Strait. Taiwanese, tired of Chinas bellicose rhetoric, rallied around him. But this time, until the referendum issue erupted, Beijing had deliberately held its fire. That, coupled with a steady drop in Chens popularity over the years, apparently forced the President to seek a fresh squabble with China. China is a useful enemy for Chen, says Su Chi, a senior policy adviser to the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party. Its a scarecrow he can point at to mobilize many people in Taiwan who resent China trying to influence our democracy.

Replaying the China card may not be enough to get Chen elected again, however. In 2000, the opposition was divided. For the coming election, the KMT and the other major opposition group, the People First Party, are fielding a joint candidate, KMT chairman Lien Chan, so as not to split the vote. The opposition has attacked Chens administrative performance, blaming frequent policy flip-flops in the past few years for having aggravated Taiwans poor economy. Still, by harping on the referendum issue, Chen has managed to achieve two key election objectives: telegraphing to his hard-core supporters, who want independence, that he has not forgotten about protecting the islands sovereignty, and belatedly provoking an irate reaction from Beijing. His critics in Taiwan fear he has gone too far. He has put his own interests above those of national security, says Sisy Chen, a former staffer of Chens Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and now an independent legislator. Hes playing a very dangerous game.

Just how dangerous might be revealed this week during Chinese Premier Wen Jiabaos first official trip to the U.S. Wens visit was meant to cement the warming ties between the two countries, with trade the only real point of contention. Now, laments a senior U.S. State Department official, the Taiwan issue is going to be high on the agenda. Wen is likely to push U.S. President George W. Bushs Administration to make clear its opposition to Taiwans independence. Thats something Washington has so far refused to do, maintaining instead that it does not support independence.

Chen may be refraining from calling a referendum on sovereignty, but thats unlikely to appease China. Not lost on Beijing is the message implicit in Chens Nov. 29 announcement to call a referendum: in the face of Chinese aggression, Taiwan㻖or the first time since it split with China in 1949𤪔as the legal means by which to hold a nationwide vote on independence. Its a powerful weapon for mustering emotional support from the international community should any threat be made by China to Taiwans sovereignty, says a DPP official. Its precisely the kind of tool China did not want us to have.

For Beijing, the Taiwan problem comes amid a growing clamor for more democracy in Hong Kong. Faced with these twin challenges, China is unlikely to back down. Indeed, last week Chinese legal experts warned that there could be no further moves toward democracy in Hong Kong without Beijings approval㻡 hard-line approach that China would dearly love to apply to Taiwan, too. Unhappily for the Communists, Taiwan𨫎with its own army, constitution and democratically elected government𤪔as a proud history of remaining defiant in the face of threats from Beijing. Chinas reaction to how Taiwan runs its affairs, says the secretary-general of the Presidents office, Chiou I-jen, is not our concern. Brave𤪳but perhaps unrealistic𨫎ords.

¡XWith reporting by Massimo Calabresi/Washington, Matthew Forney/Beijing and Joyce Huang and Donald Shapiro/Taipei


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